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A legally rolled 43 -- ROLLOUT and VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 21 August 2017, at 7:28 p.m.

In Response To: A legally rolled 43 (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aA--BDB-a-BcB-b-c-cA-b-A-:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position (Blue to play 43)

1.	Rollout1	24/20 5/2	eq: +0.078
	Player: Opponent: 50.60% (G:14.29% B:0.29%) 49.40% (G:7.37% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.072...+0.085) - [100.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 43 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/21 6/2	eq: +0.049 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 50.62% (G:20.97% B:1.66%) 49.38% (G:15.81% B:0.76%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.041...+0.057) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 41 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/20 11/8	eq: +0.040 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 50.09% (G:13.97% B:0.36%) 49.91% (G:10.00% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.031...+0.050) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 05 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/20 6/3	eq: +0.039 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 50.06% (G:13.85% B:0.35%) 49.94% (G:9.11% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.032...+0.046) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 27 seconds
5.	Rollout2	20/13	eq: -0.012 (-0.091)
	Player: Opponent: 49.20% (G:15.08% B:0.48%) 50.80% (G:13.18% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.027...+0.002) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds
6.	Rollout2	13/10 13/9*	eq: -0.056 (-0.134)
	Player: Opponent: 48.33% (G:18.01% B:1.02%) 51.67% (G:17.94% B:1.88%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.072...-0.039) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 35 seconds
7.	Rollout2	13/9* 9/6	eq: -0.069 (-0.147)
	Player: Opponent: 47.73% (G:18.18% B:1.12%) 52.27% (G:16.76% B:1.42%) Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.091...-0.047) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds
8.	Rollout2	24/20 13/10	eq: -0.092 (-0.171)
	Player: Opponent: 47.17% (G:11.82% B:0.28%) 52.83% (G:9.73% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.107...-0.077) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 17 seconds
9.	Rollout2	11/8 6/2	eq: -0.099 (-0.177)
	Player: Opponent: 46.97% (G:18.25% B:0.77%) 53.03% (G:17.49% B:1.50%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.112...-0.085) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 43 seconds
10.	Rollout2	24/21 13/9*	eq: -0.112 (-0.190)
	Player: Opponent: 47.75% (G:17.34% B:1.02%) 52.25% (G:19.69% B:2.29%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.129...-0.095) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2614532 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2614532 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

My rollout of the original position appears above. The rollout data is summarized in the first nacbracs line below. In addition, Colin e-mailed me his own rollout, which is represented in the second nacbracs line below.

...[E E30 B38 e39 R91 D134 O147 S171 n177 X190] "<=5***1
...[E E20 B35 e31 R97 D159 O166 S138 X183] "<=5*1

I posted a similar position plus variants here, a few years ago.

Below is a variant of the 43 position diagrammed above. With one fewer checker in the zone (White's 8pt spare is back on her midpoint), Blue's best play changes, with a dramatic .117 swing in margin.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 152 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aA--BDB-a-BdB-b-b-cA-b-A-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Variant (White has one fewer checker in the zone)

1.	Rollout1	24/21 6/2	eq: +0.236
	Player: Opponent: 54.35% (G:21.82% B:1.36%) 45.65% (G:12.82% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.215...+0.257) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/20 5/2	eq: +0.149 (-0.087)
	Player: Opponent: 52.18% (G:16.03% B:0.35%) 47.82% (G:7.00% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.128...+0.171) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/20 6/3	eq: +0.100 (-0.136)
	Player: Opponent: 51.21% (G:15.28% B:0.39%) 48.79% (G:8.58% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.087...+0.113) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 31 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/20 11/8	eq: +0.086 (-0.150)
	Player: Opponent: 51.06% (G:14.86% B:0.38%) 48.94% (G:8.99% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.072...+0.100) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 08 seconds
5.	Rollout1	20/13	eq: +0.085 (-0.151)
	Player: Opponent: 51.46% (G:16.59% B:0.47%) 48.54% (G:12.23% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.070...+0.101) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 02 seconds
6.	Rollout1	13/10 13/9*	eq: -0.003 (-0.239)
	Player: Opponent: 49.52% (G:19.08% B:1.09%) 50.48% (G:17.22% B:1.75%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.023...+0.016) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 58 seconds
7.	Rollout1	13/9* 9/6	eq: -0.011 (-0.247)
	Player: Opponent: 49.21% (G:19.13% B:1.01%) 50.79% (G:15.83% B:1.35%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.028...+0.005) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 07 seconds
8.	Rollout1	11/8 6/2	eq: -0.016 (-0.252)
	Player: Opponent: 48.85% (G:20.96% B:1.00%) 51.15% (G:16.84% B:1.40%) Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.038...+0.006) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds
9.	Rollout1	24/20 13/10	eq: -0.025 (-0.261)
	Player: Opponent: 48.53% (G:13.20% B:0.31%) 51.47% (G:8.82% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.040...-0.010) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 47 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76781060 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• A legally rolled 43
  Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 20 August 2017, at 4:50 a.m.
  • A legally rolled 43
    sebalotek -- Sunday, 20 August 2017, at 10:08 a.m.
    • A legally rolled 43
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 20 August 2017, at 4:23 p.m.
  • A legally rolled 43
    Michael -- Sunday, 20 August 2017, at 1:01 p.m.
  • A legally rolled 43 -- ROLLOUT and VARIANT
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 21 August 2017, at 7:28 p.m.
    • A legally rolled 43 -- ROLLOUT and VARIANT
      sebalotek -- Wednesday, 23 August 2017, at 6:43 a.m.
  • A legally rolled 43
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 22 August 2017, at 7:01 p.m.