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fundamentally flawed without market loss consideration

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 24 August 2017, at 2:59 p.m.

In Response To: Racing Cube - Janowski model? (Michael)

"That's the logical basis behind the market losers "theory" after all."

Why did you put theory in quotes?

Your example has nothing to do with market losers theory.The 80% cash value figured nowhere in your calculation and you would have come to the same conclusion if say instead 50% of the rolls (really should be sequence) went to 72% and 50% went to 70% but with no market losers that is obviously not a double.

"And that's what the bots do at 0-ply evaluation level (and most probably at n-ply evaluation level too)"

Of course if it cannot look ahead at all it could not use market losers as a criterion. It doesn't make sense to base an entire theory of when to double ignoring the market loss concept because that is how 0 ply does things. At 2 ply though it is extemely clear that more than just score, estimated win chance, and cube level is being used. For the first position below you say to double if at least 76%. XG 2 ply doubles here (by a wide margin) with only 72.8% win chance. In the second position with higher win chance of 76.2% 2 - ply does not cube.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 13
5 point match
pip: 13
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---AA-A------------a-aa---:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 2-ply No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:72.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:27.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.456 +0.540
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.441 (-0.100)
Double/Take:+0.540
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.460)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 141
5 point match
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----AABABACBBcdbba-aaa----:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 2-ply No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:76.19% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:23.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.524 +0.700
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.703
Double/Take:+0.700 (-0.003)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.297)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.0%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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