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what the "inapplicable" position shows and other examples

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 24 August 2017, at 9:04 p.m.

In Response To: Do save your time and mine. (Michael)

I did read the readme file but you did not read my post very well. The "inapplicable" position was used to show that 2 ply considers more than just score, cube location, and win %. Do you dispute that it does that?

Your method works well for long races where the cube efficiency value you used is probably accurate and there is a moderate level of market loss. It can work poorly though for positions with very heavy or very little market loss potential. For example this one is applicable (receiver is getting a dead cube so applicable according to the readme file) and due to extreme market loss possibility it looks to be a cube with only 54.1% but you say to cube at 64.7% at that score.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 45
3 point match
pip: 78
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CBBBBB---------AaaAbbbbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 2-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:53.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:46.83% (G:0.72% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.056 +0.127
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.124 (-0.003)
Redouble/Take:+0.127
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.873)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This next position has extremely low volatility and looks to be a technical no double despite 70.5% win chance.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 45
3 point match
pip: 78
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBBC------A---A---bbbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 70.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 29.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.410 +0.817
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.821±0.001 (+0.820..+0.822)
Redouble/Take:+0.817 (-0.004)±0.001 (+0.816..+0.818)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.179)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.2%
Rollout details
41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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