The difference between the plays we're concerned with is ~.050 as can be seen at the end of this post which also includes the best play of 13/7 6/5 and perhaps slightly better play of 18, 7 which picks up the blot. Let's take a look side by side at how the final position looks after each play.
After the inferior play posted on the right Blue is free to make any point his dice desire without an pressure or compensation from White in doing so. Bar point, five point, four point, any point is a good point!
After the superior play posted on the left Blue is forced to deal with our blot on his 7pt or face the consequences of allowing us to anchor up with a six next turn or run the man to safety with many other numbers. This is the major difference. A distraction play of sorts, an action play you might call it. Forcing the action while we have the stronger board, welcoming an exchange of hits.
Here's the ++ of all plays.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 156
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BDBA---cD-c-c-e----B-:0:0:1:16:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 16 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 6/5 | eq: -0.030 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.17% (G:14.61% B:0.42%)
51.83% (G:12.20% B:0.67%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 8/7 | eq: -0.055 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.22% (G:11.72% B:0.38%)
51.78% (G:11.86% B:0.43%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 6/5 | eq: -0.059 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.36% (G:12.37% B:0.43%)
51.64% (G:13.51% B:0.59%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 24/23 13/7 | eq: -0.109 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.38% (G:13.25% B:0.41%)
53.62% (G:13.01% B:0.61%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
