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Rollout and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 3 September 2017, at 4:57 p.m.

In Response To: OTB and RO (neilkaz)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 90
5 point match
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaBABBB-A---B---AAabcdAc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

Original position


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.38% (G:25.81% B:1.51%) 79.64% (G:23.70% B:2.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.62% (G:9.06% B:0.37%) 20.36% (G:9.33% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.799 +1.523
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.025±0.004 (+1.020..+1.029)
Redouble/Take:+1.468 (+0.443)±0.006 (+1.462..+1.474)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.025)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 5.3%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35306351
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Above is my 5k rollout of Neil's original position.

In Variant 1 (immediately below), White's 1pt spare is moved to her 3pt, creating a cusp.

In Variant 2, White is adjusted one more pip, and Blue should redouble (not too good).

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 92
5 point match
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaBABBB-A---B---AAabceAb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

Variant 1 (Compared to the original, White's 1pt spare is moved to her 3pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.57% (G:24.44% B:1.49%) 79.20% (G:23.21% B:2.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.43% (G:8.97% B:0.29%) 20.80% (G:9.45% B:0.35%)
Cubeless Equities +0.767 +1.496
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.998 (-0.002)±0.004 (+0.995..+1.002)
Redouble/Take:+1.439 (+0.439)±0.005 (+1.434..+1.444)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35306351
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:79.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 37 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 93
5 point match
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaBABBB-A---B---AAabddAb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

Variant 2 (Compared to the original, White's 1pt spare is moved to her 4pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.90% (G:23.96% B:1.43%) 78.17% (G:22.33% B:2.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.10% (G:9.89% B:0.34%) 21.83% (G:10.09% B:0.42%)
Cubeless Equities +0.734 +1.433
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.972 (-0.028)±0.005 (+0.968..+0.977)
Redouble/Take:+1.374 (+0.374)±0.006 (+1.368..+1.380)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57951965
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 42 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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