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Live Cube equity:A root value in BG based on a math axiom

Posted By: Michael
Date: Monday, 4 September 2017, at 11:07 a.m.

In Response To: Live Cube equity:A root value in BG based on a math axiom (Michael)

Since this thread has been diverted to a case where the TP can go below the Live TP may I still hold the view that the Live TP defines the minimum TP because of cube ownership except in rare cases of last rolls where it can still be calculated in the same fashion? If you think this is not true could you please post some more bot Ids?

Coming back to the original question, considering that the TP Live is calculated under optimal conditions, is the factor by which the Dead point gets reduced to get the Live TP, mathematically correct (even under those conditions)? Who came up with that factor on the first place, has he published any explanation?

Like I said earlier the Live equity together with the cubeless are used by bots in evaluations (upto what ply I am not sure) to get the Cubeful equity and Take Point. Rollouts do use evaluations too. I called the Live TP a "root" value because it is been used by bots to get other values. So if it deviates too much from reality, then bot’s verdicts in cube decisions might deviate too much from reality as well.

Going one step further: I ‘ve done statistics of >2000 cases (from real life matches of top players) concerning non forced by the score Doubles to 2. I found that the average point at which they occurred was 67%. Yet the Doubler eventually won 4% less (64.32) and the receiver of the cube won about 8% more (35.68%). This is nothing new it’s even mentioned in books although the numbers differ slightly (5% and 10% from what I remember)

So instead of struggling with calculations to find the cubeful TP based on uncertain "root" values, maybe we should do statistics using various parameters and see what’s going on. Then plug those results to bots as a database. That would make the rollouts extremely fast and hopefully more close to reality.

In the meantime you may try this experiment in playing with the bots. Don’t Double marginally, don’t Take marginally. Be more certain it’s a Double or a Take. Check if you are winning more than usual.

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