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Montreal cube action ROLLOUT

Posted By: Jack Edelson
Date: Tuesday, 19 September 2017, at 10:46 p.m.

In Response To: Montreal cube action ROLLOUT (ah_clem)

Thanks for posting this; I was just about to post my rollout and saw this.

I had a lot of time on my clock so I was able to take six or seven to come up with an estimate of the opponent's win % by estimating the probability of being hit if the opponent enters right away, on the second turn, etc., taking into account the imperfections in Ed's home board (give him a closed board, and he's got 15% and it's a big ND/T). My best guess had the take decision close, and I didn't think he could have much more than 13%, so I figured I'd throw the cube out there and let Ed decide what to do with it. But I must confess I basically forgot about gammons, so I probably should have held on to the cube in practice even if I happened to get it right this time. If Ed had 13% or so it's probably no double, and if I was further off it would be a really big mistake. That said, you don't often get to play for the gammon; you're likely to be cashing the game before that to prevent losing by a freak shot, or else have a very thin play-on. For example, if I play 13/6 and the opponent fans, it's a tiny cash.

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