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Montreal cube action ROLLOUT variants

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Tuesday, 19 September 2017, at 11:32 p.m.

In Response To: Montreal cube action ROLLOUT (ah_clem)

Move Jack's spare on the midpoint one pip in either direction and the correct cube action changes. Move it from the 13 to the 14:





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 107
11 point match
pip: 77
score: 8

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCbB--C----A----bbbc-c-:1:1:1:00:8:5:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 86.90% (G:19.10% B:0.16%) 87.19% (G:25.60% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 13.10% (G:0.43% B:0.01%) 12.81% (G:0.43% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.869 +1.217
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.915±0.003 (+0.912..+0.918)
Redouble/Take:+0.902 (-0.013)±0.005 (+0.898..+0.907)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.085)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.6%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 26 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Move the spare from the 13 to the 12:





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 107
11 point match
pip: 75
score: 8

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCbB--C--A------bbbc-c-:1:1:1:00:8:5:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 88.66% (G:19.67% B:0.19%) 88.91% (G:26.66% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 11.34% (G:0.34% B:0.01%) 11.09% (G:0.24% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.910 +1.286
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.953 (-0.047)±0.002 (+0.951..+0.955)
Redouble/Take:+1.011 (+0.011)±0.004 (+1.007..+1.016)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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