Like most of you, I automatically made the 9 point, but rollouts prefer 13/11(2), 6/4(2).
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 142 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BD-BA--dD---dBdb-----:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.601 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.00% (G:14.86% B:0.34%)
35.00% (G:6.24% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.588...+0.615) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 6/4(2) | eq: +0.560 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.94% (G:12.57% B:0.31%)
35.06% (G:5.70% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.548...+0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81444878
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
At DMP, it's a tossup:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 142 | | 1 point match | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BD-BA--dD---dBdb-----:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.307 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.37% (G:16.31% B:1.21%)
34.63% (G:7.53% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.302...+0.313) - [59.8%]
Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 6/4(2) | eq: +0.307 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.33% (G:16.00% B:1.26%)
34.67% (G:6.74% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.302...+0.311) - [40.2%]
Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81444878
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
I moved one opponent back checker from the 8pt to the 24pt, so that the opponent's threat of escaping is lessened, presumably making the bar point less of a priority. For money, it's now right to make the 9:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---BD-BA--dD---cBdb-----:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 6/4(2) | eq: +0.955 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.81% (G:19.18% B:0.73%)
28.19% (G:5.46% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.944...+0.965) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.919 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.73% (G:20.01% B:0.79%)
28.27% (G:5.69% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.910...+0.929) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81444878
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
But at DMP, it again becomes a tossup, with 18/16(2) 6/4(2) also being in the mix. Thus, going to DMP makes 13/11(2) no longer clearly best in the original position, but it elevates it in the second one:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | | 1 point match | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---BD-BA--dD---cBdb-----:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/16(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.430 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.51% (G:19.06% B:1.89%)
28.49% (G:6.17% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.426...+0.435) - [47.4%]
Duration: 5 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.429 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.47% (G:25.81% B:2.24%)
28.53% (G:6.55% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.424...+0.435) - [33.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/9 6/4(2) | eq: +0.428 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.42% (G:24.88% B:2.26%)
28.58% (G:6.51% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.423...+0.434) - [19.6%]
Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81444878
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
This is partly explained by the cube; we're pretty close to a cash in the variant. If blue incorrectly doubled before the roll, it's a tossup, just like it is at DMP.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---BD-BA--dD---cBdb-----:1:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 6/4(2) | eq: +0.490 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.03% (G:19.75% B:0.75%)
27.97% (G:5.79% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.481...+0.500) - [63.1%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.488 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.44% (G:21.32% B:0.74%)
28.56% (G:6.14% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.479...+0.497) - [36.9%]
Duration: 4 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80760647
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10