| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.248 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.26% (G:17.72% B:0.61%)
44.74% (G:10.61% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.241...+0.255) - [99.8%]
Duration: 23 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 6/4(2) | eq: +0.233 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.06% (G:16.30% B:0.52%)
44.94% (G:9.66% B:0.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.226...+0.240) - [0.2%]
Duration: 22 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82605212
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
It pays to study third roll positions. Doing so will help you make better checker plays in late opening and early middle game positions. If you had been familiar enough with 41S-65R-22 above (as I am), you probably would have thought of it (and at least let it weigh in) as soon as you saw Jack's position below.
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 142 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BD-BA--dD---dBdb-----:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.601 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.00% (G:14.86% B:0.34%)
35.00% (G:6.24% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.588...+0.615) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 6/4(2) | eq: +0.560 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.94% (G:12.57% B:0.31%)
35.06% (G:5.70% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.548...+0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81444878
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Jack's rollout of his original position is copied above. It can be reached via best play as early as the seventh roll of the game with 41S-65R-65@-41$-31P-54O-22.
Jack did a great job with variants. We both tested White having a second checker back, except that he moved an 8pt spare back to her 24pt, whereas I moved a 13pt spare to her 24pt. Both changes reversed the best play (in favor of Blue making his 9pt), but Jack's checker adjustment resulted in a .035 margin (1k rollout), whereas my (smaller) adjustment resulted in a .013 margin (5k rollout), as shown in Variant 1 below.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 6/4(2) | eq: +0.922 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.19% (G:19.35% B:0.73%)
28.81% (G:6.11% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.915...+0.928) - [99.7%]
Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.909 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.31% (G:19.89% B:0.74%)
28.69% (G:6.25% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.903...+0.915) - [0.3%]
Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 18/16(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.845 (-0.076) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 70.60% (G:15.50% B:0.58%)
29.40% (G:5.88% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.832...+0.859) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 59 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82605212
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82605212
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Let's return that second 24pt checker back on White's midpoint, then strengthen White's board (with 6/4(2)) and move back 8/13, netting a 1-pip difference from the original position. See Variant 2 below.
Nack
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 6/4(2) | eq: +0.546 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.12% (G:12.84% B:0.30%)
35.88% (G:5.74% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.539...+0.552) - [73.3%]
Duration: 20 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.542 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.65% (G:14.67% B:0.33%)
36.35% (G:6.46% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.535...+0.550) - [26.7%]
Duration: 19 minutes 59 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82605212
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
