I didn't see the rollout-winner, bar/24 8/3. It has the advantage of minimizing shots (20) like 6/1* while not burying as deep. Four-ply analysis favors the hit, but in a full rollout 8/3 noses out the hitting play by .006 - well within the margin of error so call it a toss-up.
11/6 and 13/8 are ~.06 errors. Not terrible, but sub-optimal. Presumably this is because of the additional shots.
         
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 118 | | 5 point match | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aA---C-CbBBaB--a--bbbbbAA:0:0:1:51:0:2:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 8/3 | eq: -1.061 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 24.01% (G:2.11% B:0.10%)
75.99% (G:38.42% B:5.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.073...-1.050) - [75.4%]
Duration: 26 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 6/1* | eq: -1.067 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.09% (G:2.18% B:0.10%)
77.91% (G:37.97% B:5.79%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-1.079...-1.055) - [24.6%]
Duration: 32 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 11/6 | eq: -1.121 (-0.060) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.25% (G:1.67% B:0.07%)
77.75% (G:39.74% B:5.75%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.133...-1.110) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 13/8 | eq: -1.124 (-0.062) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 21.03% (G:1.30% B:0.06%)
78.97% (G:39.32% B:5.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-1.136...-1.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2