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curious 5-1 to play ROLLOUT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 20 October 2017, at 5:47 a.m.

In Response To: curious 5-1 to play ROLLOUT (ah_clem)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 118
5 point match
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aA---C-CbBBaB--a--bbbbbAA:0:0:1:51:0:2:0:5:10

Original Position


1.Rollout1Bar/24 8/3eq: -1.063
Player:
Opponent:		23.92% (G:2.17% B:0.11%)
76.08% (G:38.29% B:6.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.070...-1.057) - [96.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 6/1* eq: -1.072 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		21.94% (G:2.19% B:0.10%)
78.06% (G:37.78% B:5.47%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.079...-1.065) - [3.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/24 11/6eq: -1.113 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		22.15% (G:1.75% B:0.07%)
77.85% (G:39.78% B:5.84%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.125...-1.102) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/24 13/8eq: -1.125 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		21.10% (G:1.39% B:0.14%)
78.90% (G:39.08% B:5.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.136...-1.114) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 10 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59216904
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59216904
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


If the person posting a position follows up with a rollout, I'll usually offer variant(s), assuming I'm around. If a player does not, I take it as a sign that s/he is not interested enough and I most often stay silent. If someone else ends up doing the rollout, I might or might not.

Here, ah_clem stepped in (thank you). Above is a 5k rollout of Barry's original position.

In the variant below, White's 9pt blot is nudged back to her 11pt. What difference can it make? Well, it's enough to swing the best play. Hitting turns White's 64 into a bad roll (she would otherwise make her 7pt). As a consequence, Blue's play of H (Hit, bar/24 6/1*) inches into the lead.






White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 120
5 point match
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aA---C-CbBBaBa----bbbbbAA:0:0:1:51:0:2:0:5:10

Variant (White's 9pt blot has been backed up to her 11pt)


1.Rollout1Bar/24 6/1* eq: -1.075
Player:
Opponent:		21.61% (G:2.17% B:0.07%)
78.39% (G:37.86% B:5.40%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.082...-1.068) - [78.5%]
Duration: 58 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 8/3eq: -1.079 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		23.32% (G:2.01% B:0.10%)
76.68% (G:38.99% B:6.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.085...-1.073) - [21.5%]
Duration: 50 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout2Bar/24 11/6eq: -1.118 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		22.13% (G:1.68% B:0.07%)
77.87% (G:40.04% B:5.88%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.129...-1.107) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 11 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/24 13/8eq: -1.131 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		20.67% (G:1.41% B:0.03%)
79.33% (G:38.54% B:5.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-1.141...-1.121) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 08 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59216904
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59216904
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


If White's blot is instead on her 10pt (i.e.,in between her 9pt and 11pt of the other two positions), Blue's hit will stop 63 from making her 7pt, but she is able to escape to her 16pt anchor (unlike 64 in the variant position). That rollout (not shown) narrowly supports C (Cross, bar/24 8/3), by an even smaller margin than in the original position. It's an in-between result.

Nack

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