So working from the reference position below which is very similar to your original position and every man we add back on the board for white goes on his ace point here are the numbers with the player on roll's win % being listed first. (always a favorite)
If one was going to play a 2 PR or better on average one would have these memorized. I have rounded the figures for easier (?) memorization but also included the more exact percentage in parenthesis after the rounded number.
The gammons won for the opponent range anywhere from 7% (13 off) down to 3% (6 off) and they decrease steadily with the outlier of 12 off of course. For practical purposes use 5%.
As an aside, having the two point instead of the ace point as in your example or any of the examples will usually yield 2%-3% less winning chances for the non on roll player. If the ace point is instead made in combination with the two point then the non on roll player's win % will obviously go up in the same fashion, by a couple/few percent.
These figures were based off unlimited games rollouts.
- 13 off - 55/45 (53/47)
- 12 off - 70/30
- 11 off - 60/40
- 10 off - 65/35 (67/33)
- 9 off - 70/30
- 8 off - 75/25
- 7 off - 78/22 (bare)Redouble/take
- 6 off - 82/18 Redouble/(clear)pass
                   |
| ||||
| XGID=---a-a-----------bbcbbbB--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10