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Cube from USBGF OLM

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 23 October 2017, at 3:31 p.m.

In Response To: Cube from USBGF OLM (Jason Lee)

If this were a straight race in money play the 9 pip deficit would be a narrowish pass since the point of last take is 8 pips.

But here there's contact and the possibility of white hitting a shot should push it into take territory. I don't know that the score matters all that much.

For the cube decision I first look at how often white gets a recube. Blue's worst roll is 63 and that leaves 14 rolls to hit (and presumably win almost all the time). That doesn't seem enough to recube, so if the cube makes it to two it should stay at two since a hit will be a cash.

I would ship it, simply because some will pass (and it might well be a pass since white has a spare on the deuce and a lot farther to go before bearing off). So Mr Woolsey is whispering "cube" in my ear.

And it's sort of a "Last roll" position. Next time blue gets a chance to cube he's either broken contact, about to break contact after rolling a six and getting missed, or he's closed out on the bar. With GWC > 50% that itself should be a cube.

D/T

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