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Cube from USBGF OLM Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 23 October 2017, at 5:10 p.m.

In Response To: Cube from USBGF OLM Rollout (Jason Lee)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 80
11 point match
pip: 71
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABAEBb--B--------bbbbcb-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:11:10

Double / Take (Passing is a Whopper)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Jason's original position appears above. [I omitted rollout details because his colors were reversed from original posting, and I'd already finished the variant rollouts with side on roll at bottom.] As he observed (from the OLM), "A majority (20 to 18) of the votes were to pass this cube." Passing is a whopper.

Let's even out that stacked 5pt (by moving one of them forward a pip, the other backward a pip. The pipcount is identical, but the whopper is erased. The position has become a borderline PASS, as shown below.






White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 80
11 point match
pip: 71
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABBCCb--B--------bbbbcb-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:11:10

Borderline Pass


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.53% (G:0.45% B:0.00%) 76.72% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.47% (G:0.27% B:0.00%) 23.28% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.533 +1.141
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.806 (-0.194)±0.002 (+0.805..+0.808)
Double/Take:+1.009 (+0.009)±0.003 (+1.006..+1.012)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94307656
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 43.4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Now let's do the opposite: We'll move Blue's 4pt checker backward a pip and the 6pt checker forward a pip, and for good measure we'll move the other 6pt checker forward a pip. Blue is 1 pip further ahead in the race compared to the position just shown to be a pass, yet he has a borderline NO DOUBLE. See below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 80
11 point match
pip: 70
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BAB-H-b--B--------bbbbcb-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:11:10

Borderline No Double


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.71% (G:0.17% B:0.00%) 66.80% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.29% (G:0.76% B:0.02%) 33.20% (G:0.76% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.328 +0.717
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.561±0.001 (+0.559..+0.562)
Double/Take:+0.560 (0.000)±0.002 (+0.558..+0.562)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.439)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.1%
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94307656
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:61.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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