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Racing Formulae

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 9 November 2017, at 5:11 p.m.

In Response To: Racing Formulae (christian munk-christensen)

I would suggest you read this article in full. Though we had this discussion already in like 2011.

In the article one thing you'll note is that Keith does better than all the formulas it's compared to except in the shortest of races where Ward does slightly better. This is using the Keith Count as is, no mods. The biggest shortcoming of the Keith Count will be when it gets down to a very short race, more like rolls v. rolls. There are also other spots with great wastage where I avoid the Keith Count. I use epc. With some experience you will quickly be able to recognize these positions on sight.

As for application of the Keith Count, I love that it can be summed up in one pretty table.

For each player, start with the basic pip count and:

  • add 2 pips for each checker more than 1 on the one point;

  • add 1 pip for each checker more than 1 on the two point;

  • add 1 pip for each checker more than 3 on the three point;

  • add 1 pip for each empty space on points four, five, and six.

Increase the count of the player on roll by one-seventh (rounding down).

  • A player should double if his count exceeds the opponent's count by no more than 4.

  • A player should redouble if his count exceeds the opponent's count by no more than 3.

  • The opponent should take if the doubler's count exceeds the opponent's count by at least 2.

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