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Increasing Winning Changes by D/T

Posted By: Max Levenstein
Date: Friday, 10 November 2017, at 7:36 p.m.

This position analysis struck me as an interesting result. We often talk about a proper take involving some amount of Recube Vig, of which at least a portion of its value should be derived from the ability to win marginally more games via a Recube/Pass.

The following position and analysis show a D/T cube action which, upon a take, increases straight winning chances, gammons, and backgammons.

What is going on here? I know it's just marginal differences, but I would just expect the odds going in the other direction. Perhaps this is just a function of the rollout error?

All thoughts appreciated.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bCCE-----C-c-c-cb-b--A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
double/take)

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68,58% (G:25,36% B:0,29%) 69,03% (G:25,40% B:0,34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31,42% (G:4,93% B:0,19%) 30,97% (G:4,97% B:0,20%)
Cubeless Equities +0,577 +1,172
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,792 (-0,141)±0,008 (+0,784..+0,799)
Double/Take:+0,933±0,012 (+0,922..+0,945)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,067)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 20 minutes 56 seconds

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