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vote D / T

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Wednesday, 15 November 2017, at 6:16 p.m.

In Response To: They disagree with me (Stick)

I'd anchor my thoughts on the likely(?) case of White grabbing a low anchor (1-3pt) with 3 checkers back vs a prime. I'd think she is likely to get one of those checkers to her homeboard before Blue bears in and I'd estimate the chances at such position.

White with 4 checkers in, and 2 stragglers is at 3,5 x 6 + 46 - 4 = 63 EPC and Blue at, say 203333 position is at 56 + 10 = 66 EPC, so about 50/50 before contact. Contact favors Blue, since White will have many numbers blocked, and breaking the anchor might get her into trouble, so I'd take maybe 35-40% as estimate for White.

Obviously, White is much worse than that here as Blue will have plenty of time and possibilities to trap or put more guys back with not much counterplay, since he's facing no board on the other side. I don't think it can bring White's chances down to half to make it a pass though, so I actually think White might be in the 20-25% range, so maybe a close decision. Add some gammon wins after some early luck to the mix and it might be a reasonable take for White.

A double? Probably. I think many better-than-average exchanges might loose the market for Blue.

I'm very interested to see how others evaluate this one and what methods they use.

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