BGonline.org Forums

Crawford...Golden point -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 16 November 2017, at 6:43 a.m.

In Response To: Sacrificing 0.054 equity at Crawford for the goldenpoint, justified, criteria? (Max Levenstein)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 144 5 point match Crawford pip: 191 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----aD-CA--dCa--cae--A-BA:0:0:1:54:4:0:1:5:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 22/18*	eq: -0.118
	Player: Opponent: 45.50% (G:12.61% B:1.26%) 54.50% (G:20.43% B:1.08%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.125...-0.111) - [100.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 04 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 24/20	eq: -0.170 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 42.91% (G:10.24% B:0.96%) 57.09% (G:22.43% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.176...-0.163) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/20 9/5*	eq: -0.188 (-0.070)
	Player: Opponent: 42.52% (G:10.10% B:1.23%) 57.48% (G:24.88% B:1.68%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.194...-0.181) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 28 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13417452 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Give white another point in his board and see how that changes it. Seems like a one point board, with one white checker threatening to escape are the main drivers here.

I assume you mean something like Variant 1. See rollout below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 5 point match Crawford pip: 191 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----aD-CA--dCa--cac-bA-BA:0:0:1:54:4:0:1:5:10
Variant 1 (White owns 4pt)

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 22/18*	eq: -0.260
	Player: Opponent: 39.18% (G:8.32% B:0.99%) 60.82% (G:27.60% B:1.98%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.264...-0.256) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 24/20	eq: -0.287 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 37.32% (G:6.24% B:0.55%) 62.68% (G:26.38% B:1.07%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.290...-0.284) - [0.0%] Duration: 55 minutes 05 seconds
3.	Rollout2	Bar/20 9/5*	eq: -0.333 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 36.18% (G:6.67% B:0.53%) 63.82% (G:31.73% B:2.88%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.340...-0.326) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 27 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13417452 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13417452 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

As shown above, it is still right to hit on the 18pt, but the margin is reduced from .051 (original 4pt-less position) to .027. Incidentally, even at Gammon Save, hitting is right (by .011, 5k rollout not shown).

There are two subvariants below (side-by-side if your window is wide) that stem off the 4pt variant. In the first, Blue's roll has been changed to 52. In the second, Blue's roll is still 54 but White's blot has been moved from her 7pt to her 9pt. In both cases, Blue should anchor on the 20pt.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 5 point match Crawford pip: 191 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----aD-CA--dCa--cac-bA-BA:0:0:1:52:4:0:1:5:10
Subvariant 1a (Roll changed to 52)

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 22/20	eq: -0.265
	Player: Opponent: 38.51% (G:6.56% B:0.61%) 61.49% (G:24.73% B:1.41%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.268...-0.262) - [100.0%] Duration: 48 minutes 40 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/18*	eq: -0.284 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 38.20% (G:7.70% B:1.04%) 61.80% (G:29.52% B:2.23%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.287...-0.280) - [0.0%] Duration: 59 minutes 55 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13417452 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 142 5 point match Crawford pip: 191 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----aD-CA--dCa-ac-c-bA-BA:0:0:1:54:4:0:1:5:10
Subvariant 1b (White's 7pt blot moved to 9pt)

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 24/20	eq: -0.250
	Player: Opponent: 39.14% (G:7.45% B:0.89%) 60.86% (G:25.98% B:1.13%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.253...-0.247) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/16*	eq: -0.267 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 38.88% (G:8.77% B:1.31%) 61.12% (G:27.70% B:2.11%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.271...-0.264) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/20 9/5*	eq: -0.303 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 37.61% (G:7.38% B:0.95%) 62.39% (G:31.55% B:2.80%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.309...-0.298) - [0.0%] Duration: 48 minutes 36 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13417452 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13417452 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Sacrificing 0.054 equity at Crawford for the goldenpoint, justified, criteria?
  higonefive -- Tuesday, 14 November 2017, at 4:48 p.m.
  • Sacrificing 0.054 equity at Crawford for the goldenpoint, justified, criteria?
    Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 14 November 2017, at 7:20 p.m.
    • Sacrificing 0.054 equity at Crawford for the goldenpoint, justified, criteria?
      Max Levenstein -- Tuesday, 14 November 2017, at 8:22 p.m.
      • Crawford...Golden point -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 16 November 2017, at 6:43 a.m.
        • Crawford...Golden point -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
          higonefive -- Thursday, 30 November 2017, at 5:59 p.m.
  • Sacrificing 0.054 equity at Crawford for the goldenpoint, justified, criteria?
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 15 November 2017, at 4:21 p.m.
    • XGR++ @ 5a5a
      ah_clem -- Wednesday, 15 November 2017, at 4:51 p.m.
    • Sacrificing 0.054 equity at Crawford for the goldenpoint, justified, criteria?
      bluedice -- Friday, 1 December 2017, at 8:50 a.m.
  • Sacrificing 0.054 equity at Crawford for the goldenpoint, justified, criteria?
    Michael Sullivan -- Friday, 17 November 2017, at 4:46 p.m.
    • Sacrificing 0.054 equity at Crawford for the goldenpoint, justified, criteria?
      Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 17 November 2017, at 5:17 p.m.