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They disagree with me - Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 17 November 2017, at 2:18 a.m.

In Response To: They disagree with me (Stick)

Phil got the details a bit inverted. The almighty *they* (names withheld to protect the guilty) wanted to and did take this. I couldn't see this game unfolding in a decent enough manner for us to gain our footing and grab a decent anchor somewhere. In the 1 game rollout the doubler rolled rather lamely and the taker had his chances but still lost.

There are two rollouts. The first is regular settings and still shows it as a pass albeit a smallish one. Not believing it was such a small pass I decided to jack up the settings and the stronger rollout gives me the numbers I was looking for.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 80
Unlimited Game
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-aB-CBBB-A--------AAc-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 83.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.90% (G:2.64% B:0.31%) 16.81% (G:2.23% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities +0.592 +1.279
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.000±0.027 (+0.973..+1.027)
Redouble/Take:+1.179 (+0.179)±0.039 (+1.140..+1.218)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60683996
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Large
Double Decision confidence:50.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 hours 23 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 80
Unlimited Game
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-aB-CBBB-A--------AAc-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 80.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.20% (G:3.07% B:0.58%) 19.42% (G:2.86% B:0.41%)
Cubeless Equities +0.580 +1.158
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.965 (-0.035)±0.010 (+0.955..+0.975)
Redouble/Take:+1.045 (+0.045)±0.015 (+1.030..+1.061)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51981379
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 19 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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