Despite the consensus that bot results are not trustworthy in this position, I rolled it out anyway and here's what XG has to say.
bar/21 4/2 is favored by 4-ply and XGR++, while the distraction play of bar/21 5/3* is the choice of the rollout. All three say whacking two is at least a whopper with cheese, but that's just it's opinion, man.
four-ply:
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 156 | | 5 point match | pip: 262
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-aAAA-a-a---BabbbcCBBaBA:0:0:1:42:1:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | 4-ply | Bar/21 6/4 | eq: -0.873 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.94% (G:6.96% B:0.21%)
62.06% (G:41.22% B:3.22%) | |
|
| 2. | 4-ply | Bar/21 5/3* | eq: -0.921 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.57% (G:6.57% B:0.15%)
62.43% (G:43.10% B:4.27%) | |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | Bar/23* 24/20 | eq: -1.030 (-0.157) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.32% (G:5.84% B:0.19%)
66.68% (G:45.89% B:3.08%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | Bar/23* 5/1* | eq: -1.079 (-0.206) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.14% (G:5.03% B:0.10%)
68.86% (G:47.10% B:3.77%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | Bar/21 4/2 | eq: -0.749 (+0.125) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.27% (G:7.58% B:0.30%)
58.73% (G:38.79% B:4.22%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
XGR++
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 156 | | 5 point match | pip: 262
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-aAAA-a-a---BabbbcCBBaBA:0:0:1:42:1:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/21 6/4 | eq: -0.844 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.95% (G:7.42% B:0.26%)
60.05% (G:39.02% B:3.05%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/21 5/3* | eq: -1.000 (-0.156) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.37% (G:7.03% B:0.17%)
60.63% (G:41.70% B:4.12%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/21 4/2 | eq: -1.000 (-0.156) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.78% (G:6.58% B:0.19%)
61.22% (G:41.58% B:4.05%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | Bar/21 14/12 | eq: -1.065 (-0.221) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.96% (G:6.64% B:0.16%)
63.04% (G:46.27% B:5.18%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | Bar/21 24/22 | eq: -1.082 (-0.238) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.02% (G:7.19% B:0.19%)
62.98% (G:45.59% B:3.04%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller++ | Bar/23* 24/20 | eq: -1.097 (-0.253) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.54% (G:6.50% B:0.16%)
64.46% (G:44.94% B:3.16%) | |
|
| 7. | XG Roller++ | Bar/23* 5/1* | eq: -1.121 (-0.277) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.99% (G:5.91% B:0.17%)
65.01% (G:44.88% B:3.83%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
ROLLOUT:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 156 | | 5 point match | pip: 262
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-aAAA-a-a---BabbbcCBBaBA:0:0:1:42:1:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 5/3* | eq: -0.532 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.04% (G:8.99% B:0.69%)
54.96% (G:39.09% B:3.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.062 (-0.595...-0.470) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 56 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 6/4 | eq: -0.680 (-0.147) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.26% (G:8.10% B:0.43%)
57.74% (G:37.86% B:2.87%) | Conf.: ± 0.044 (-0.724...-0.636) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 5/1* | eq: -0.698 (-0.166) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.59% (G:8.11% B:0.61%)
59.41% (G:41.80% B:3.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.060 (-0.758...-0.638) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 14/12 | eq: -0.791 (-0.259) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.35% (G:8.33% B:0.56%)
60.65% (G:46.71% B:4.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.063 (-0.854...-0.728) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2