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Cube from Akiko/(MCG) v. Alia/Victor - Rollout and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 19 November 2017, at 5:47 p.m.

In Response To: Cube from Akiko/(MCG) v. Alia/Victor - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 1

score: 2
pip: 123
7 point match
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-AaBbBBBBA----bB--bcabb--A:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:7:10

Original position


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.24% (G:31.53% B:1.43%) 63.78% (G:32.76% B:1.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.76% (G:10.02% B:0.48%) 36.22% (G:10.07% B:0.54%)
Cubeless Equities +0.496 +1.117
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.725 (-0.242)±0.006 (+0.718..+0.731)
Double/Take:+0.967±0.010 (+0.957..+0.977)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.033)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20431577
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 33 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Stick's rollout of his original position is copied above. He indicated that for money it is a take by .275, but AtS (as shown) it is a take by only .033.

It is difficult to make White's situation materially worse with a single change without altering the nature of the position. The best tries seem to be (a) moving White's 15pt back to her 16pt, or (b) moving White's outfield blot from her 9pt back to her 17pt. With either change, the take becomes closer.

If we make both (a) and (b) changes, as in Variant 1 below, the position does become a borderline pass:






White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 133
7 point match
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBACBab-B-----bbbbBbAa-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

Variant 1 (White is adjusted 15/16(2) + 9/17)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.43% (G:35.03% B:1.65%) 63.12% (G:35.65% B:1.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.57% (G:10.64% B:0.64%) 36.88% (G:10.44% B:0.68%)
Cubeless Equities +0.509 +1.152
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.740 (-0.260)±0.004 (+0.736..+0.744)
Double/Take:+1.001 (+0.001)±0.007 (+0.994..+1.008)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86174152
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:63.5%
Duration: 43 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

If we restore the original position, then move White's 1pt checker back to her 6pt, as in Variant 2 below the position jumps all the way back to a no double, even AtS.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 128
7 point match
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBACB--bB----abbcbBbA--:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

Variant 2 (White's 1pt checker is back on her 6pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.08% (G:27.19% B:0.83%) 57.36% (G:28.00% B:0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.92% (G:11.43% B:0.72%) 42.64% (G:11.72% B:0.79%)
Cubeless Equities +0.306 +0.696
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.535±0.007 (+0.528..+0.542)
Double/Take:+0.526 (-0.009)±0.010 (+0.517..+0.536)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.465)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.8%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86174152
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:92.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 30 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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