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| XGID=bB---BB-B---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
64P-54S-11I-F-C | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.406% (G:35.586% B:0.571%) | 66.634% (G:38.042% B:0.548%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.594% (G:7.799% B:0.378%) | 33.366% (G:8.286% B:0.446%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.6079 | +1.2625 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.8255 (-0.1725) | ±0.0060 (+0.8195..+0.8315) |
| Double/Take: | +0.9981 | ±0.0092 (+0.9888..+1.0073) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0019) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 66.0% | |
| Duration: 57 minutes 50 seconds | ||
Neil's (money) rollout of 64P-54S-11I-F-C is copied above. (This sequence includes a misplay of 54S, but a one-roll-longer perfectly played substitute sequence is 51S-64P-F-11I-F-C.)
Suppose we make two changes:
(a) Move White's 8pt spare back to her 10pt (making it an outfield blot).
(b) Take one of White's checkers OFF the bar and put it on her 18pt (Blue's 7pt).
To the casual observer, it might seem that these two changes should net favor White (i.e., make the cube more takeable). Not so! See the rollout below.
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| XGID=aB---BBaB---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
64P-63S-11I-F-C | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.24% (G:35.40% B:1.21%) | 66.51% (G:37.53% B:1.25%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.76% (G:7.40% B:0.34%) | 33.49% (G:7.90% B:0.39%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.614 | +1.270 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.809 (-0.191) | ±0.006 (+0.803..+0.815) |
| Double/Take: | +1.004 (+0.004) | ±0.011 (+0.993..+1.015) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 86174152 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 77.2% | |
| Duration: 20 minutes 52 seconds | ||
I should mention that in the diagram's captioned sequence given, Blue's double 1s play was a blunder (though it did unwittingly gain as White fanned!), and that he should have played N (Near, 8/7*(2) 2/1*(2)) instead. However, the position could be reached error-free by a longer sequence.
Two questions:
(1) What happens if (compared to the position immediately above), Blue owns his 4pt instead of his 5pt -- is that better or worse for Blue?
(2) What standard opening sequence would create that position (vacant 5pt instead of vacant 4pt)?
Make your guesses, then consult the rollout (and caption) below.
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| XGID=aB--B-BaB---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
53P-63S-22I-F-C | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.39% (G:37.49% B:1.28%) | 66.69% (G:38.41% B:1.32%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.61% (G:7.51% B:0.36%) | 33.31% (G:7.85% B:0.40%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.637 | +1.297 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.800 (-0.200) | ±0.006 (+0.793..+0.806) |
| Double/Take: | +1.023 (+0.023) | ±0.010 (+1.013..+1.033) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 86174152 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 19 minutes 24 seconds | ||
Some of Blue's numbers (33 22 62 21 44) play better with his 5pt vacant than with his 4pt vacant.
Nack