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Two Cusp Variations

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 19 November 2017, at 10:18 p.m.

In Response To: Two Cusp Variations (Paul Weaver)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 107
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--CbDCC---bB----abbbba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Original position

Stick's original position is shown above. No rollout has been posted yet, but I'm sure you can infer what the result will be based on the (unanimous-sided) comments, as well as by comparing the variants being posted.

Nice cusp variants, Paul! I learn a lot from those.

Below are three more cusp variants, this time making the changes on Blue's side.

Nack






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 99
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-CbBCC---bB----abbbba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Borderline Take (Blue made 2pt from 6pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.95% (G:12.92% B:0.22%) 74.27% (G:12.58% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.05% (G:3.77% B:0.11%) 25.73% (G:3.73% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.572 +1.150
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.866 (-0.133)±0.005 (+0.862..+0.871)
Double/Take:+0.999±0.006 (+0.993..+1.006)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.001)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86174152
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:60.6%
Duration: 12 minutes 15 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 107
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-bECC---bB----abbbba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Borderline Double (Blue is adjusted 444 to 633, same pipcount)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.66% (G:9.67% B:0.18%) 70.90% (G:9.70% B:0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.34% (G:4.91% B:0.10%) 29.10% (G:4.86% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.462 +0.934
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.763 (-0.006)±0.005 (+0.758..+0.767)
Double/Take:+0.769±0.006 (+0.763..+0.775)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.231)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86174152
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:94.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 57 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--CbD-CC--bB----abbbba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Borderline No Double (Blue has his 9pt instead of his 7pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.41% (G:7.46% B:0.18%) 71.47% (G:7.56% B:0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.59% (G:3.96% B:0.09%) 28.53% (G:4.08% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.464 +0.930
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.786±0.005 (+0.781..+0.791)
Double/Take:+0.781 (-0.005)±0.006 (+0.775..+0.787)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.214)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.4%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16319810
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:91.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 18 minutes 49 seconds

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