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4a-5a recube action?
Posted By: Karol Szczerek In Response To: 4a-5a recube action? (John O'Hagan)
Date: Tuesday, 21 November 2017, at 7:29 p.m.
White's TP is 26%.
With 4 off and 1 closed out, she'd be at 17% GWC.
Now let me butcher the math.
Blue threatens to close the 2pt, which would put White at maybe 5% more GWC (22%) in case of dance and maybe another 3-4% more in case of enter (there is also a joker of 1-6), so I arrive at maybe about 24% GWC vs a 5-prime. That's in 21/36 cases, so .24 x 21/36 is about 5 games (out of 36).
If Blue doesn't make the 2pt and White enters, I'd assume an avg of 35% wins for White, since she will be probably somewhere between 30 to 40%, depending on what she rolls exactly (I don't think even a joker like 2-5 or 2-6 puts her in the front seat given the number of Blue's ammunition in the outfield). That's .35 x 15/36 (Blue's non-covers), so about 5.25 games (out of 36), times 20/36 (White's entering numbers), which gives 3 games (out of 36).
I gathered 5 + 3 = 8 games (out of 36) so far.
If Blue doesn't cover and White dances, I'd use similar number as for the case where Blue makes the 5 and White enters on the ace (about 24% GWC), because he will probably bring more builders to the front, raising the chances of making the 5pt board by quite a bit. That's .24 x 15/36 (Blue's non-covers), so about 3.6 games, times 16/36 (White's dances), which gives 1.6 games (out of 36).
Summing up, I get 9.6/36 games. 9 games is 25%, so 9.6 is about 26.8%.
So this is certainly a redouble, and looks like a thin technical take.
In practice, this should mean an easy take, since Blue has some distance to go, and can spill equity in the process (White's moves on the other hand will be almost always forced).
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