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OTB, RO, etc etc.

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 21 November 2017, at 7:35 p.m.

In Response To: Lopsided match attack cube from Vegas (neilkaz)

This cube is from my streamed match with Phil. Phil intended to go aggressively after me with the cube, so I don't fault his cube here. What I do fault is the commentators who felt and told me afterwards that this was a big pass even AtS. Maybe someone who input it to XG had the score backwards?

Anyhow, this is a good ref pos as it is probably a bare take for $$.




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 149
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aBBC-C--AeB---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.553% (G:32.762% B:0.735%) 67.057% (G:34.749% B:0.790%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.447% (G:6.814% B:0.321%) 32.943% (G:7.025% B:0.382%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5947 +1.2449
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7597 (-0.2228)±0.0082 (+0.7515..+0.7679)
Double/Take:+0.9825±0.0138 (+0.9687..+0.9963)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0175)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79456731
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.3%
Duration: 17 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

OTB I wasn't sure whether to take or pass for money so I just grabbed the cube here AtS as surely it was an easy take.




White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 149
15 point match
pip: 144
score: 8

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aBBC-C--AeB---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:8:1:0:15:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.600% (G:33.397% B:0.996%) 66.817% (G:34.417% B:1.653%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.400% (G:6.703% B:0.346%) 33.183% (G:6.944% B:0.381%)
Cubeless Equities +0.6067 +1.1165
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6342±0.0111 (+0.6231..+0.6453)
Double/Take:+0.5608 (-0.0734)±0.0153 (+0.5455..+0.5761)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3658)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87356923
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 24 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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