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Run, hit once or twice with this 65?

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 21 November 2017, at 10:25 p.m.

In Response To: Run, hit once or twice with this 65? (John O'Hagan)

I've seen some positions from that category, where single hit came out ahead as a balanced play. Here, homever I don't think it might be right since we destroy the midpoint in the process. So I'd evaluate double hit vs run.

I think double hit wins via cash if White dances and gives solid advantage if she enters with one checker on the 3pt. After her single hits, the game is still playable.

The run guards the outfield in case White wants to run, and looks like it should win slightly more straight games than the double hit (based on the feel that it looks like the correct DMP play). It certainly wins many more gammons.

Since both plays risk a similar amount of gammon losses (not sure which one looses more, so it's probably close), I think the double hit is the right play due to much better gammon chances and cashes after White dances.

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