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| XGID=---aBBC-C--AeB---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:8:1:0:15:10 | |||||
Original position | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.600% (G:33.397% B:0.996%) | 66.817% (G:34.417% B:1.653%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.400% (G:6.703% B:0.346%) | 33.183% (G:6.944% B:0.381%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.6067 | +1.1165 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.6342 | ±0.0111 (+0.6231..+0.6453) |
| Double/Take: | +0.5608 (-0.0734) | ±0.0153 (+0.5455..+0.5761) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.3658) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.3% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 87356923 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 24 minutes 08 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil's rollout of his original position appears above. It is a clear No Double AtS (though probably a bare take for money, as Neil's 1k supplemental rollout showed).
If we give Blue 3 pips by moving his leading back checker from 23/20, as shown in Variant 1 below, his cube status jumps to a borderline>/i> No Double.
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| XGID=---aBBC-C--AeB---d-eA---A-:0:0:1:00:8:1:0:15:10 | |||||
Variant 1 (Compared to original, Blue gains 23/20) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.03% (G:32.99% B:0.74%) | 69.18% (G:33.02% B:0.98%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.97% (G:5.24% B:0.24%) | 30.82% (G:5.37% B:0.26%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.664 | +1.218 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.744 | ±0.007 (+0.737..+0.750) |
| Double/Take: | +0.739 (-0.005) | ±0.010 (+0.729..+0.749) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.256) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.8% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 79.2% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 57 minutes 24 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Or here is a different 3 pips 8/5, as shown in Variant 2 below, where Blue inches just over the line to a borderline Double:
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| XGID=---aBCC-B--AeB---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:8:1:0:15:10 | |||||
Variant 2 (Compared to original, Blue gains 8/5) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.74% (G:36.31% B:0.87%) | 68.89% (G:36.59% B:1.25%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.26% (G:6.07% B:0.32%) | 31.11% (G:6.25% B:0.33%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.684 | +1.248 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.737 (-0.005) | ±0.007 (+0.731..+0.744) |
| Double/Take: | +0.743 | ±0.010 (+0.732..+0.753) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.257) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 80.3% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 55 minutes 04 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
What if Blue owns her 7pt? This is a change of 11/7 8/7 from original position, as shown in Variant 3 below. Much stronger, of course, but still not enough to evoke a correct drop AtS.
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| XGID=---aBBCBB---eB---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:8:1:0:15:10 | |||||
Variant 3 (Compared to original, Blue made prime with 11/7 8/7) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71.73% (G:37.17% B:1.03%) | 71.88% (G:37.04% B:1.34%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28.27% (G:5.25% B:0.23%) | 28.12% (G:5.30% B:0.25%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.763 | +1.399 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.835 (-0.121) | ±0.006 (+0.828..+0.841) |
| Double/Take: | +0.956 | ±0.010 (+0.946..+0.966) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.044) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75076730 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 27 minutes 52 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Above, if Blue is given merely the additional pip above of 23/22, his equity rises from .956 to 1.032 and he's got his pass (rollout not shown).
Or, from the above position, if we BREAK Blue's 7pt with 7/4, his equity rises from .956 to the borderline take of 1.030, as shown in Variant 4 below. (Or breaks of 7/5, 8/5 or 8/4 gain similarly.) The extra attacking builder is worth more than having five points in a row.
Nack
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| XGID=---aCBCAB---eB---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:8:1:0:15:10 | |||||
Variant 4 (Compared to original, Blue gains 11/7 8/4) | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 72.01% (G:40.99% B:0.96%) | 72.10% (G:41.60% B:1.30%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.99% (G:5.31% B:0.26%) | 27.90% (G:5.39% B:0.29%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.805 | +1.482 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.853 (-0.147) | ±0.006 (+0.846..+0.859) |
| Double/Take: | +1.030 (+0.030) | ±0.010 (+1.020..+1.041) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75076730 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 26 minutes 08 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2