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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 9:59 p.m.

In Response To: 4a-5a recube action? (John O'Hagan)

I was Blue in this position against Norm Wiggins. OTB, I figured his tp was ~26%. Does he win this often? The next sequence will fall into one of five categories: cover dance, cover enter, no cover dance, no cover hit, no cover enter without hitting. I estimated his wins in each of these and concluded that his t/p decision looked real close. That's one good reason to redouble. Another reason is that I won't have to worry about getting g'd if it goes r/t+auto recube. We'll be at dmp so I'll be able to play the checkers more boldly that at a normal score. So I recubed and Norm took. The RO shows it to be a pass ats though.





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 38
11 point match
pip: 128
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-ABBBC---A--A-----A-B-cg-:1:1:1:00:7:6:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.88% (G:7.54% B:0.10%) 24.87% (G:7.91% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.365 +1.249
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.885 (-0.115)±0.005 (+0.881..+0.890)
Redouble/Take:+1.049 (+0.049)±0.007 (+1.041..+1.056)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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