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OTB & RO, and Cusp VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 11:24 p.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 38
11 point match
pip: 128
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-ABBBC---A--A-----A-B-cg-:1:1:1:00:7:6:0:11:10

Original position (Blue has a 6pt spare)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.88% (G:7.54% B:0.10%) 24.87% (G:7.91% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.365 +1.249
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.885 (-0.115)±0.005 (+0.881..+0.890)
Redouble/Take:+1.049 (+0.049)±0.007 (+1.041..+1.056)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

John's rollout of his original position is shown above. Technically, White has a solid pass.

Below are two variants, where the 6pt spare has been relocated.

Variant 1 is a Take / Pass cusp.
Variant 2 is a Double / No Double cusp.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 38
11 point match
pip: 125
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-ACBBB---A--A-----A-B-cg-:1:1:1:00:7:6:0:11:10

Variant 1, Borderline Take (Blue 6pt spare moved to 3pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.70% (G:7.89% B:0.11%) 25.74% (G:8.17% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities +0.343 +1.201
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.870 (-0.124)±0.003 (+0.867..+0.873)
Redouble/Take:+0.994±0.004 (+0.990..+0.998)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.006)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47805405
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.9%
Duration: 8 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 38
11 point match
pip: 143
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-ABBBB---A--A-----A-C-cg-:1:1:1:00:7:6:0:11:10

Variant 2, Borderline Redouble (Blue 6pt spare moved to 21pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 70.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.33% (G:13.72% B:0.42%) 29.61% (G:13.83% B:0.47%)
Cubeless Equities +0.177 +0.934
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.748 (0.000)±0.004 (+0.743..+0.752)
Redouble/Take:+0.748±0.005 (+0.743..+0.753)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.252)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47805405
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:52.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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