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Run, hit once or twice with this 65? -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 11:39 p.m.

In Response To: Run, hit once or twice with this 65? (John O'Hagan)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 131 5 point match pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-BBD-C---bB---c-bbbBb--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 65

1.	Rollout1	8/2* 6/1*	eq: +0.137
	Player: Opponent: 51.54% (G:22.95% B:0.43%) 48.46% (G:16.97% B:0.97%) Conf.: � 0.014 (+0.122...+0.151) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 15 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: +0.076 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 53.55% (G:16.96% B:0.94%) 46.45% (G:18.87% B:0.62%) Conf.: � 0.012 (+0.063...+0.088) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 03 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/2*	eq: +0.064 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 49.84% (G:19.17% B:0.77%) 50.16% (G:15.37% B:0.70%) Conf.: � 0.014 (+0.050...+0.078) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds
4.	2-ply	13/7 6/1*	eq: -0.103 (-0.240)
	Player: Opponent: 47.16% (G:15.86% B:0.42%) 52.84% (G:20.78% B:1.13%)
5.	2-ply	22/16 6/1*	eq: -0.119 (-0.255)
	Player: Opponent: 49.31% (G:15.97% B:0.51%) 50.69% (G:24.30% B:1.29%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

John's rollout of his original position is shown above.

There are two variants below (side-by-side if your window is wide), in which Blue's 6pt spare has been slightly relocated. Technically, they are both cusps (two plays being tied for best).

In Variant 1, the 6pt spare has been moved to the 8pt, and the anchor-breaking play tops the rollout.
In Variant 2, it has been nudged to the 5pt, and the single-hit play (that at least one respondent "hates" in the original position) now tops the rollout.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 131 5 point match pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-BBC-D---bB---c-bbbBb--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:5:10
Variant 1 (Blue's 6pt spare is moved to the 8pt)

1.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: +0.059
	Player: Opponent: 53.56% (G:15.48% B:0.95%) 46.44% (G:19.38% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.054...+0.065) - [71.1%] Duration: 16 minutes 11 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/2* 6/1*	eq: +0.057 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 49.68% (G:20.88% B:0.50%) 50.32% (G:18.49% B:1.09%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.049...+0.065) - [28.9%] Duration: 18 minutes 51 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/2*	eq: +0.012 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 49.29% (G:17.40% B:0.64%) 50.71% (G:15.38% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.002...+0.021) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 43 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75076730 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75076730 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 131 5 point match pip: 135 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-BCC-C---bB---c-bbbBb--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:5:10
Variant 2 (Blue's 6pt spare is moved to the 5pt)

1.	Rollout1	13/2*	eq: +0.145
	Player: Opponent: 51.11% (G:20.62% B:0.71%) 48.89% (G:15.15% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.137...+0.152) - [72.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 21 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: +0.142 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 54.56% (G:18.20% B:1.08%) 45.44% (G:18.34% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.136...+0.148) - [28.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 44 seconds
3.	Rollout2	8/2* 6/1*	eq: +0.075 (-0.070)
	Player: Opponent: 50.36% (G:22.28% B:0.48%) 49.64% (G:17.85% B:0.93%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.063...+0.086) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75076730 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75076730 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Run, hit once or twice with this 65?
  John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 21 November 2017, at 5:45 p.m.
  • Run, hit once or twice with this 65?
    christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 21 November 2017, at 6:43 p.m.
    • Run, hit once or twice with this 65?
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 4:39 a.m.
  • Run, hit once or twice with this 65?
    Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 21 November 2017, at 10:25 p.m.
  • Run, hit once or twice with this 65?
    hominid -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 3:50 p.m.
  • Run, hit once or twice with this 65?
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 10:37 p.m.
    • OTB & RO in above post *NM*
      John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 10:41 p.m.
    • Run, hit once or twice with this 65? -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 11:39 p.m.
      • Run, hit once or twice with this 65? -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
        christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 23 November 2017, at 10:26 a.m.
        • Run, hit once or twice with this 65? -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 23 November 2017, at 4:09 p.m.
          • Run, hit once or twice with this 65? -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
            Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 23 November 2017, at 4:33 p.m.