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Bagai or not? - RO & More VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 28 November 2017, at 1:25 a.m.

In Response To: Bagai or not? - RO & Variants (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 78
Unlimited Game
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaCDBB-B----------cccbab-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Original position


1.Rollout18/2* 6/2eq: +0,363
Player:
Opponent:		71,58% (G:1,33% B:0,02%)
28,42% (G:4,93% B:0,14%)		Conf.: ± 0,001 (+0,362...+0,364) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 8/2* eq: +0,254 (-0,109)
Player:
Opponent:		66,56% (G:1,58% B:0,03%)
33,44% (G:0,99% B:0,02%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+0,253...+0,256) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Large

Karol's rollout of his original position -- with the cube on White's side -- is shown above.

He presented some interesting variants. Below are a couple more. In Variant 1, if White enters with any of the 2s that don't escape, she is no longer able to close her board. The Bagai play is still right (albeit by a diminished margin).

In Variant 2, White's last spare has been moved to her ace point, and the non-Bagai play crosses over (to the plus side of "tied").

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 69
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaCDBB-B----------bbcbad-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2 (White's 6pt 5pt 4pt spares are on 1pt)


1.Rollout18/2* 6/2eq: +0.435
Player:
Opponent:		74.65% (G:1.70% B:0.03%)
25.35% (G:1.34% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.434...+0.436) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15.5 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 8/2* eq: +0.412 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		73.98% (G:2.61% B:0.05%)
26.02% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.410...+0.414) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22.6 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16319810
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 66
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaCDBB-B----------bbbbae-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1 (White's 6pt and 5pt spares are on 1pt)


1.Rollout18/4 8/2* eq: +0.452
Player:
Opponent:		75.90% (G:2.87% B:0.06%)
24.10% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.450...+0.454) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41.9 seconds
2.Rollout18/2* 6/2eq: +0.445 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		76.31% (G:1.87% B:0.03%)
23.69% (G:1.30% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.444...+0.447) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.0 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16319810
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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