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OTB, RO, etc etc.

Posted By: Michael Sullivan
Date: Saturday, 2 December 2017, at 6:58 p.m.

In Response To: OTB, RO, etc etc. (neilkaz)

I was pretty sure this was a fairly close take for money due to similarity to known reference positions.

Based on that, the take must be obvious ATS, so the double is the question. In my reasoning, we still get nearly full credit for the gammon if we end up owning the cube on 4, so the main thing we lose is recube vig, and a higher (especially gammonish) take point. That should make us cautious, but I didn't expect it would bring us all the way back to a pretty clear no double.

Nack's variants help me understand a lot here. Various good things that can happen (PoH/dance, make 7/no 6, make high anchor/no escape) mostly get us close passes or takes rather than huge market loss. It looks like only PoH/dance or hit with uncomfortable enter are more than tiny market losers, where I was expecting a lot of the more common good variations to be .1+ passes.

Apparently we're getting that 4-cube sent back to us more often than I realized, which means we're winning a lot of gammons. So, of course, at scores like this, the more gammons we're *winning*, the more equity we need to send a double. that's always true obviously, but it's especially true when we're ahead, even when we still are far enough away that a gammonless cube won't be all that different from money.

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