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54D-61P-65P-54D-652-65P-32 -- 4-ply rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 3 December 2017, at 3:55 p.m.

In Response To: Early game sequence, 54D-61P-65P-54D-652-65P-32, etc. (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bAB--E-C---bB---bbe--b-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10

54D-61P-65P-54D-652-65P-32


1.Rollout18/3eq: -0.554
Player:
Opponent:
36.50% (G:10.61% B:0.59%)
63.50% (G:21.35% B:1.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.560...-0.547) - [99.1%]
Duration: 10 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 6/4eq: -0.565 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
37.68% (G:11.33% B:0.55%)
62.32% (G:24.66% B:3.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.572...-0.558) - [0.9%]
Duration: 11 minutes 14 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16319810
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


I was bothered by the result of the (3-ply) rollout above that I posted last night. (The top two plays are isolated here.)

So, I did a 4-ply rollout overnight. See result below, exhibiting a margin swing of .038.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bAB--E-C---bB---bbe--b-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10

54D-61P-65P-54D-652-65P-32


1.Rollout18/5 6/4eq: -0.527
Player:
Opponent:
37.96% (G:11.45% B:0.56%)
62.04% (G:25.30% B:3.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.533...-0.520) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 03 minutes
2.Rollout18/3eq: -0.554 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
36.50% (G:10.71% B:0.59%)
63.50% (G:21.76% B:1.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.558...-0.549) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16319810
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

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