I think a lot of players would get this one wrong OTB. They'd split out to the 18 rather than the 22 since the 18 is the more valuable point. The problem with this play is that you lose too much when White hits loose and you fail to hit back. White will then be in a good position to cover the 7 or make a good inner board point. Splitting to the 22 is clearly the better play. A third of White's next rolls leave you a direct shot and some of those leave quite a few extras as well (63,62,51). With the 6 you can either slot the 5 or play 13/7 for another builder.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 11/5 | eq: -0.328 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.98% (G:8.88% B:0.25%)
59.02% (G:9.79% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.334...-0.322) - [99.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 13/7 | eq: -0.340 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.68% (G:8.63% B:0.25%)
59.32% (G:9.80% B:0.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.346...-0.334) - [0.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/18 13/11 | eq: -0.441 (-0.113) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.97% (G:5.94% B:0.17%)
62.03% (G:8.95% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.454...-0.427) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/18 6/4 | eq: -0.464 (-0.137) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.77% (G:6.82% B:0.24%)
62.23% (G:10.71% B:0.48%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.478...-0.450) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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