Paying now is the best play according to the rollout. But the safe play that stays even-ended is not too far behind. The "pretty" play doesn't fare so well.
Good problem. I'm going to play this one out a few times since that's probably the best way to see why paying now is right.
       
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 217 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 82
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cdBCDC-B-A-a-----bbba----:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/4 8/6 | eq: +0.587 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.75% (G:31.71% B:13.97%)
47.25% (G:1.01% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.034 (+0.553...+0.621) - [73.3%]
Duration: 8 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/4 6/4 | eq: +0.572 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.08% (G:31.20% B:13.09%)
47.92% (G:0.82% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.033 (+0.539...+0.604) - [25.7%]
Duration: 8 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 10/4 5/3 | eq: +0.538 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.08% (G:31.28% B:13.13%)
47.92% (G:0.87% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.035 (+0.503...+0.573) - [1.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10