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4 ply/XGR+ RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 15 January 2018, at 3:50 p.m.

In Response To: Coming in against a backgame Cube Action rollouts (ah_clem)

Bots may not underestimate all backgames, but XG underestimates this type it seems. As a result I think that the equity for not cubing here is somewhat low as often XG will send an early cube next turn or after when it still isn't a proper cube when not much unexpected has happened. I used XGR+ cube since by a slight margin it prefers to not cube the initial position.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 217
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 82
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cdBCDC-B-A-a-----bbba----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 52.183% (G:30.883% B:13.683%) 51.854% (G:30.713% B:13.426%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.817% (G:0.760% B:0.033%) 48.146% (G:0.739% B:0.027%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4814 +0.9416
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.5261±0.0272 (+0.4989..+0.5532)
Double/Take:+0.4618 (-0.0642)±0.0289 (+0.4329..+0.4907)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.4739)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 100000000
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 43 minutes 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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