[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 18 January 2018, at 2:50 p.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (Michael)

The redoubling window is real small for the leader ATS. My OTB estimate is that it opens at 90% (90.85% according to XG) and closes when the trailer has a marginal t/p at 93.33% (XG says 93.21%). Your altered position where Blue would only have 90.5% be too close to the low end of the window using my OTB estimate to have a redouble and would not even be in the window according to XG.

Think of the doubling window this way: In a straight race it opens at 50% and closes ~78%. In a mid to long race though, you usually have to wait until you're pretty high up in the window before doubling (~72% for an initial cube and 74% for a recube).

ATS you need to be real close to 93.21% to have a correct redouble. In my actual position, XG only had a small recube when it was within 0.7% of the top end of the window!

Think also about the gain/loss from a correct/incorrect redouble: The gain from finding a correct redouble when the window is real tiny is usually pretty small while the loss from an incorrect recube is quite a bit larger. Since even the best racing formulas can be off by 1% - 2%, the leader's rule should be "when in doubt, don't redouble."

Or you can follow Richard Munitz's advice on redoubling as the leader at a lopsided score with a tiny doubling window: Don't redouble until the trailer has a pass!

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.