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54D-61P-65P-54D-652-65P-32

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 20 January 2018, at 2:17 a.m.

In Response To: 64P-33B-44 — Rollout (Igor)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bAB--E-C---bB---bbe--b-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
54D-61P-65P-54D-652-65P-32 XGR++ evaluation

1.	XG Roller++	8/3	eq: -0.569
	Player: Opponent: 36.39% (G:10.25% B:0.52%) 63.61% (G:21.60% B:1.54%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/21 8/6	eq: -0.583 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 37.19% (G:11.47% B:0.81%) 62.81% (G:26.79% B:1.36%)
3.	XG Roller++	8/5 6/4	eq: -0.589 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 37.34% (G:10.83% B:0.49%) 62.66% (G:24.91% B:3.01%)
4.	XG Roller++	6/4 6/3	eq: -0.592 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 36.37% (G:10.13% B:0.49%) 63.63% (G:22.92% B:2.07%)
5.	XG Roller++	13/11 13/10	eq: -0.604 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 35.17% (G:9.97% B:0.51%) 64.83% (G:21.27% B:1.99%)

I've never seen a rollout differ from XGR++ by 0.045 in an [early-game] position...

Without racking my brain for a more extreme early-game case, I recall this one. A comparison of the diagrams above (XGR++) and below (4-ply rollout) reveals a margin swing of .047.

More remarkable is that the 3-ply rollout and 4-ply rollout margins differ by .038, as illustrated here.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bAB--E-C---bB---bbe--b-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
54D-61P-65P-54D-652-65P-32 4-ply

1.	Rollout1	8/5 6/4	eq: -0.527
	Player: Opponent: 37.96% (G:11.45% B:0.56%) 62.04% (G:25.30% B:3.33%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.533...-0.520) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 hours 03 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/3	eq: -0.554 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 36.50% (G:10.71% B:0.59%) 63.50% (G:21.76% B:1.59%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.558...-0.549) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16319810 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

Messages In This Thread

• 64P-33B-44
  Igor -- Sunday, 14 January 2018, at 3:36 p.m.
  • 64P-33B-44
    Joseph Pregler -- Sunday, 14 January 2018, at 3:49 p.m.
  • 64P-33B-44
    Michael -- Sunday, 14 January 2018, at 4:32 p.m.
  • 64P-33B-44 — Rollout
    Igor -- Wednesday, 17 January 2018, at 5:23 p.m.
    • 64P-33B-44 — Rollout
      Tenland -- Wednesday, 17 January 2018, at 6:31 p.m.
      • 64P-33B-44 — Rollout
        Igor -- Wednesday, 17 January 2018, at 9:10 p.m.
    • 54D-61P-65P-54D-652-65P-32
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 20 January 2018, at 2:17 a.m.