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3 on Bar Redouble - ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Steven E. Carey
Date: Saturday, 17 February 2018, at 4:25 p.m.

In Response To: 3 on Bar Redouble (Steven E. Carey)





White is XG Roller+

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 173
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBaC---------A-----cBjC:1:1:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.48% (G:26.40% B:1.04%) 74.34% (G:26.72% B:1.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.52% (G:18.06% B:0.26%) 25.66% (G:17.65% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.561 +1.173
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.881 (-0.119)±0.009 (+0.872..+0.890)
xg Redouble/Take:+1.082 (+0.082)±0.014 (+1.068..+1.096)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58918962
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 18 minutes 47 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

A very interesting result. XGR++ results show a narrow take, 3ply rollouts are a pass by .040. These are 4ply rollouts and show the pass is even clearer. I think is requires a certain level of sophistication to be able to see a double here so taking on the assumption that your opponent will flub the containment is going to far for me. I was also surprised at the level of gammons for Blue.

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