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Re: NIB #103 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 28 October 2006, at 2:27 p.m.

In Response To: NIB #103 (Stick)

I lost my first rollout of this problem so I did a 324 quickie and it's the same results. The most important feature here I believe is you don't want to disconnect your entire army leaving your back checker to fend for itself. You're up in the race and you want to keep some outfield prescense so you can hop out into only a single shot and hope to scurry your way to safety. Also, you'd rather attack the lone blot than prime it and that's what the #1 play does.

Money Game
133
140
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 10/5(2) 9/4(2) 0.270
0.2% 18.1% 55.5% 44.5% 8.4% 0.2%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.207 ±0.021. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 13296 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 13/3(2) 0.197 (-0.073)
0.5% 16.8% 54.1% 45.9% 9.7% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.153 ±0.023. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 11631 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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