I had this position against Rich Munitz last weekend in Ohio. I played 25/24* 5/4 14/12 but playing the last ace from 4/3 is slightly better than 13/12. I didn't think 2/1 was correct because there were too many extra g's and too few extra wins. The gammon value for the trailer g losses ATS is close to the normal 1/2 so the ratio of extra wins/extra g losses has to be close to 1/2 for 2/1 to be correct with the last ace. A 10k RO shows 2/1 to be slightly inferior even though to ratio of extra g losses/extra wins is 3/1.
       
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 7 | | 9 point match | pip: 95
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBBDC-------A--------caA:1:-1:1:11:4:6:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 14/13 5/3 | eq: -0.675 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
73.12% (G:11.45% B:4.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.677...-0.672) - [97.1%]
Duration: 21 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 14/13 5/4 2/1 | eq: -0.678 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
70.06% (G:20.77% B:10.47%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.681...-0.676) - [2.9%]
Duration: 36 minutes 44 seconds |
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| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2