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FOUR SCORE position, Rollouts for Thrilling 31

Posted By: hominid
Date: Tuesday, 17 April 2018, at 9:47 p.m.

In Response To: FOUR SCORE position, Rollouts for Thrilling 31 (Nack Ballard)

Goodness gracious me the mind boggles all them figures is this really what backgammon is all about. I will just skip through it quickly. Ah ha the DMP game I can come to terms with that. No problem 23/22 6/3. With so many candidates most any other play is beyond my understanding and comprehension. Consternation!! it does not make the top three in the rollout. The following is a ramble I sent to a couple of well known posters, but received no opinions by reply.

• "I have an issue with variance reduction or maybe a complete misunderstanding. I am of the opinion that variance reduction was designed to increase precision of estimates of luck adjusted results and hence skill levels. The process apparently decreases the number of rollouts as opposed to a rollout without variance reduction. This fact seems to have convinced most that all rollouts should include variance reduction to confirm best play as its quicker . • On occasions one can have many candidates so close in equity that the only way to sort is with a true deep rollout and not a truncated one produced by VR , in my opinion. I have an example that appears to confirm my thoughts. The resulting best play in my example without VR can be confirmed by the human mind. well at least mine lol and is at variance with a VR rollout. I have asked around but just get referred to the internet. I have read many articles but its certainly not light reading . I would be truly grateful if you could spark up your neurons and put me straight with an opinion. There can be no learning curve with the wrong result."

Another point of contention is the badly named confidence factor. Surely its just a factor defining the play left. My rollout has a way to go I will be surprised if 13/12* 13/10* makes top play, time will tell.

A bit of fun

http://www.iflscience.com/brain/prove-your-smarts-with-the-worlds-shortest-iq-test/

Proves some have a simpler and quicker approach to a problem. I think mostly people good at IQ tests are just that, lol cos my wife got more common sense than me.

Messages In This Thread

• FOUR SCORE position, Rollouts for Thrilling 31
  Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 17 April 2018, at 7:10 a.m.
  • FOUR SCORE position, Rollouts for Thrilling 31
    hominid -- Tuesday, 17 April 2018, at 9:47 p.m.