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DQ: Why was my move so bad--three moves later?

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 9:14 p.m.

Now I see there are 4 pieces bearing on the 5 point, which I estimated to mean that I was going to get blitzed into a gammon. I noticed my opponent had made his deuce point and that I had my 8 point, so I figured I would have a chance to hit one of his laggards, should I needed to. Thus I decided to see how things would develop by making the deuce point.

Obviously my analysis was wrong. I will appreciate your your pointing out why my logic was flawed. Thanks.

		White is Kuchelauerin score: 0 pip: 146 7 point match pip: 162 score: 0 Blue is leobueno
XGID=--b---E-C-B-bCa--bcc-b--AA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 51

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 24/23	eq: -0.724
	Player: Opponent: 35.66% (G:9.21% B:1.03%) 64.34% (G:28.28% B:1.09%) Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.745...-0.703) - [98.6%] Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 6/5	eq: -0.757 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 35.85% (G:8.66% B:0.59%) 64.15% (G:29.70% B:1.75%) Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.778...-0.736) - [1.4%] Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds
3.	Rollout2	Bar/24 13/8	eq: -0.821 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 32.61% (G:8.58% B:0.60%) 67.39% (G:24.19% B:1.99%) Conf.: ± 0.026 (-0.847...-0.796) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
4.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 10/5	eq: -0.835 (-0.110)
	Player: Opponent: 32.74% (G:8.13% B:0.35%) 67.26% (G:24.07% B:2.13%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28679961 First 1 moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Search interval: Large 2 684 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28679961 First 1 moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• DQ: Why was my move so bad--three moves later?
  leobueno -- Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 9:14 p.m.
  • DQ: Why was my move so bad--three moves later?
    Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 10:00 p.m.
    • DQ: Why was my move so bad--three moves later?
      John O'Hagan -- Monday, 23 April 2018, at 2:18 p.m.