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Why do I not want a 3rd man back?

Posted By: tem_sat
Date: Monday, 16 June 2008, at 3:21 p.m.

I do not fully understand why I should not hit on the 12 point. If gammons were not crucial, I would certainly skip the hit, however, at this score, I felt I could not pass it up.

Thank you in advance for any insight.

Score is Rick 7, Tara 6 (Match to 9 Points)

Move number 14: Tara_Mendicino to play 21

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O ' ' '2X3X| 2 |3X2O2X '2X '|
| | | |
| | | 2 1 |
|1X ' ' '3O1O| |3O2O2O '2X '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Rick 126, Tara_Mendicino 133
Position ID: Zu4GARjYroMBAw Match ID: QQklAXAAMAAA

• Tara_Mendicino moves 13/12* 7/5

Alert: doubtful move (-2.639%)

# Ply Move MWC
1 4 13/11 8/7 63.15%
0.852 0.159 0.003 - 0.148 0.026 0.001
4-ply cubeful prune
2 4 8/7 6/4 62.50% ( -0.65%)
0.844 0.157 0.003 - 0.156 0.027 0.001
4-ply cubeful prune
3 4 13/12* 7/5 60.51% ( -2.64%)
0.791 0.208 0.006 - 0.209 0.042 0.001
4-ply cubeful prune
4 2 13/12*/10 59.84% ( -3.31%)
0.777 0.215 0.006 - 0.223 0.059 0.002
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5 2 13/12* 13/11 59.56% ( -3.60%)
0.775 0.213 0.006 - 0.225 0.060 0.002
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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