I quickly and thoughtlessly (TMWFD1) played 13/11 13/10 and got dinged for a -0.033 error by 4-ply.
XG+ increased the error to -1.266, thinking my equity just swung from large positive to slight negative. Hmmm. Let's look further.
XG++ gives -0.800 and a modest rollout refines that to -0.768
OK, the bot (still) has problems rolling home a prime, particularly a 7-prime, I suppose, and this is just for your amusement.
But I wonder...how is something like this handled in a dual-dual PR tournament?
1Too Much Wine For Dinner.
4-ply:
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 106 | | 7 point match | pip: 127
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BBBBBBAbB---aacca-ab-:1:-1:1:32:4:1:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | 4-ply | 13/10 11/9 | eq: +0.702 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.07% (G:9.76% B:0.39%)
12.93% (G:1.98% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 2. | 4-ply | 13/8 | eq: +0.673 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.29% (G:8.17% B:0.21%)
13.71% (G:1.87% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | 13/11 13/10 | eq: +0.668 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.05% (G:7.65% B:0.16%)
13.95% (G:1.54% B:0.01%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 11/6 | eq: +0.660 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.78% (G:8.59% B:0.24%)
14.22% (G:2.03% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 13/11 5/2 | eq: +0.496 (-0.206) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.46% (G:11.06% B:0.43%)
19.54% (G:5.28% B:0.15%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
XG Roller+:
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 106 | | 7 point match | pip: 127
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BBBBBBAbB---aacca-ab-:1:-1:1:32:4:1:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/10 11/9 | eq: +0.729 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.50% (G:10.35% B:0.44%)
12.50% (G:1.33% B:0.01%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 11/6 | eq: +0.698 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.54% (G:9.57% B:0.39%)
13.46% (G:1.44% B:0.01%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 13/8 | eq: +0.624 (-0.105) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.00% (G:10.34% B:0.48%)
15.00% (G:2.83% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 13/11 13/10 | eq: -0.537 (-1.266) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.33% (G:7.76% B:0.41%)
41.67% (G:18.92% B:0.16%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 13/11 5/2 | eq: -0.642 (-1.371) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.80% (G:9.89% B:0.64%)
47.20% (G:19.37% B:0.27%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
XG Roller++:
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 106 | | 7 point match | pip: 127
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BBBBBBAbB---aacca-ab-:1:-1:1:32:4:1:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/10 11/9 | eq: +0.747 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 88.54% (G:9.01% B:0.30%)
11.46% (G:1.38% B:0.01%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 11/6 | eq: +0.722 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.59% (G:9.20% B:0.29%)
12.41% (G:1.52% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/8 | eq: +0.709 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.67% (G:9.63% B:0.34%)
12.33% (G:2.17% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 13/10 | eq: -0.053 (-0.800) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.42% (G:6.41% B:0.24%)
31.58% (G:13.77% B:0.12%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 5/2 | eq: -0.192 (-0.939) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.43% (G:11.55% B:0.67%)
36.57% (G:15.12% B:0.22%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Modest rollout:
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 106 | | 7 point match | pip: 127
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BBBBBBAbB---aacca-ab-:1:-1:1:32:4:1:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/10 11/9 | eq: +0.789 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 89.05% (G:10.15% B:0.76%)
10.95% (G:0.97% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.780...+0.798) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/6 | eq: +0.768 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 88.28% (G:10.27% B:0.53%)
11.72% (G:1.26% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.758...+0.777) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/8 | eq: +0.729 (-0.060) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.27% (G:10.91% B:0.91%)
12.73% (G:2.27% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.711...+0.747) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/11 13/10 | eq: +0.020 (-0.769) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.49% (G:7.19% B:0.48%)
32.51% (G:14.91% B:0.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.048 (-0.028...+0.068) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 13/11 5/2 | eq: -0.285 (-1.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.69% (G:9.97% B:0.86%)
40.31% (G:16.69% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.065 (-0.350...-0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2