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A backgammon problem? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 10 December 2018, at 4:35 p.m.

In Response To: A backgammon problem? (Stick)

Indeed this is still a fairly clear take. OtB in the chouette we had the position listed below the original problem and I decided to wait based on the idea that I thought it was a take if we make the bar and that the player might pass in that position but thought for sure they'd take in this one with that extra hint of light.

I was right as someone else cubed then, the player took, we rolled [31] and he fanned again. I then doubled and he dropped.

Casper also noted an important detail in the original position, the guy is on the bar. It would actually be worse if he were on our ace point because then his aces and deuces would cough up the second blot. (also posted below)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 43
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 104
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BBBBCB------------A-bfA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 76.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.31% (G:0.41% B:0.02%) 23.29% (G:0.38% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.530 +1.060
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.902 (-0.016)±0.009 (+0.894..+0.911)
Redouble/Take:+0.919±0.010 (+0.909..+0.929)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.081)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60004401
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 30.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


The roll before
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 43
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BBBBCA---A--------A-bfA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.04% (G:1.59% B:0.11%) 25.09% (G:1.55% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.482 +0.963
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.834±0.009 (+0.825..+0.843)
Redouble/Take:+0.810 (-0.023)±0.010 (+0.801..+0.820)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.166)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60004401
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 33.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Already on the ace point
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 42
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 104
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBCB------------A-bfA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 78.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.40% (G:0.43% B:0.01%) 21.42% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.568 +1.135
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.938 (-0.062)±0.007 (+0.931..+0.945)
Redouble/Take:+1.002 (+0.002)±0.009 (+0.993..+1.011)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60004401
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:68.8%
Duration: 22.2 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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