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Why Not Pass?

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Friday, 14 December 2018, at 6:38 a.m.

First game of a 13 point match. Your opponent doubles in this position:

Match to 13, Tied at 0-0
White on roll. Cube action?
White6

Blue1
GNUBg Id: IAAABAAAAAAAAA:MAGgAQAAAAAA
XGID=-A-----------------a------:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:13:16

You have a 25% chance of winning, so you take. The same situation occurs in the next seven games, and you take all seven times. On average, the score after the eight games will be 4 for you and 12 for your opponent (your opponent wins 6 of 8 with the cube on 2, and you win 2 of 8 with the cube on 2). Your chances of winning the match are 5.6% according to Rockwell-Kazaross.

Instead of taking, let's say you drop all eight cubes. The score is 0-8/13, and your chances of winning the match are 14% (which is much better than the 5.6% MWC if you took all eight cubes). So, why not pass all eight times?

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