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22 to play -- VARIANTS and ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 29 January 2019, at 6:06 p.m.

		White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 160 7 point match Crawford pip: 111 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AbBbD-CaBC-a---aabbba---:0:0:1:22:5:6:1:7:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	11/9* 9/7 6/2	eq: +0.597
	Player: Opponent: 63.20% (G:16.63% B:1.36%) 36.80% (G:4.10% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.590...+0.603) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/9*(2) 9/7(2)	eq: +0.541 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 60.86% (G:16.21% B:1.68%) 39.14% (G:7.58% B:0.96%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.534...+0.549) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds
3.	Rollout1	10/8 10/4	eq: +0.533 (-0.064)
	Player: Opponent: 66.68% (G:9.96% B:0.56%) 33.32% (G:2.73% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.527...+0.538) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 30 seconds
4.	Rollout1	11/9*(2) 6/2	eq: +0.518 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 60.03% (G:15.88% B:1.29%) 39.97% (G:5.30% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.511...+0.525) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2599228 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

This thread appears to have been abandoned. My rollout of the original position appears above.

If we alter White's checker position by 5/3 and 7/8 (same GG score), Blue's best play changes:

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 159 2 point match Crawford pip: 111 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AbBbD-CaBC-a---b-babb---:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 22

1.	Rollout1	11/9*(2) 9/7(2)	eq: +0.620
	Player: Opponent: 64.10% (G:16.92% B:1.94%) 35.90% (G:6.20% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.617...+0.624) - [100.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 26 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/9* 9/7 6/2	eq: +0.598 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 62.81% (G:17.10% B:1.44%) 37.19% (G:4.49% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.595...+0.601) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 52 seconds
3.	Rollout2	11/9*(2) 6/2	eq: +0.541 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 61.37% (G:15.70% B:1.08%) 38.63% (G:4.85% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.535...+0.547) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds
4.	Rollout2	10/8 10/4	eq: +0.538 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 67.14% (G:9.77% B:0.74%) 32.86% (G:2.46% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.533...+0.543) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds
5.	Rollout2	11/9*(3) 6/4	eq: +0.519 (-0.101)
	Player: Opponent: 60.76% (G:15.21% B:1.27%) 39.24% (G:5.53% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.512...+0.526) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 37515190 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 37515190 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

It is worth noting that neither of the best plays represented above is remotely close to the best play for Money (or at most other scores). See below.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 111 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AbBbD-CaBC-a---b-babb---:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Same variant, but for Money

1.	Rollout1	10/8 10/4	eq: +0.661
	Player: Opponent: 66.14% (G:11.76% B:0.14%) 33.86% (G:4.04% B:0.12%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.649...+0.673) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 59 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/6(2)	eq: +0.581 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 64.33% (G:11.70% B:0.13%) 35.67% (G:4.55% B:0.13%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.569...+0.593) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 31 seconds
3.	Rollout1	11/9*(2) 9/7(2)	eq: +0.577 (-0.083)
	Player: Opponent: 62.35% (G:19.99% B:0.69%) 37.65% (G:7.25% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.561...+0.594) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
4.	Rollout1	11/9* 9/7 6/2	eq: +0.565 (-0.095)
	Player: Opponent: 61.55% (G:19.50% B:0.38%) 38.45% (G:5.94% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.551...+0.579) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 42 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 37515190 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller