Sometimes backgammon can be so much fun! Here is the final game of a high stakes chouette on Monday.
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| XGID=-b-BBaDBC---cB---b-cb--b--:3:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I am blue on-shake. I own an 8-cube and am up 29 points, player B is on my side, owns a 4-cube, and is down 56 points, and player C is in the box and up 27 points. Player C is an action player that can often take very deep, but he will often rathole to keep a win for the session and this is the last game.
Should I double? I know it is a clear pass, but it seems too good. But, too-good by how much? If there is even a samll chance he will take, it is clearly right to double. While I am thinking, Player B doubles. In this chouette, you can take or pass anyone you want (Player C's rules) Now, I think his chances of taking me have gone down, considerably, as he often passes the higher cube and takes the lower one. If I double, he can pass me, take Player B, and get to finish the last game without risking all his points. I am almost certain this is what he will do, but still I am not sure by how much it is too-good, and I am not 100% sure he will pass me.
I decide to roll. He takes Player B, of which I was unsure he would do, if I did not double, and this reinforces my belief that he would have passed me if we both doubled.
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| XGID=-b-BBaDBC---cB---b-cb--b--:3:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 61 | |||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I roll a 6-1. I think the play over and determine that I would play this number differently had I doubled than I will having not doubled. Had I doubled, I would played 13-7, 6-5. Having not doubled, I decided on 13-7, 8-7, thinking that, if missed, I can decide whether to double or play-on next roll and, if hit, I only have one blot and own the cube and will likely reach a strong cube at some point. He rolls a 3-1 and hits me. I manage to fan for the next 12 rolls, until the position reaches this;
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| XGID=-a-BB-DDB-----------bbbddA:3:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 52.11% (G:4.67% B:0.14%) | 52.49% (G:4.77% B:0.15%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 47.89% (G:6.10% B:0.01%) | 47.51% (G:6.45% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.029 | +0.069 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.199 | |
| Redouble/Beaver: | -0.331 (-0.530) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.801) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 28.5% | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Well, at least I am still favored, owning the cube! But, alas, I dance 4 more times, while my opponent escapes and G's me up for 16! I could not help but thinking had I doubled he would have passed or, possibly, taken, and if he had taken I would have played the 6-1 differently and his 3-1, that hit after my play, would have been a terrible roll, and I would have likely won 16 or 32. The joy of second-guessing yourself!!! After looking back on all my decisions, I made at least one fairly large error. Can you find it?